The Central Statistics Office (CSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released India's GDP estimates for the quarter ended June 2017.
As per the CSO, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew to Rs. 31.1 lakh crore (~$485 billion) from Rs. 29.42 lakh crore (~ $459 billion) in the corresponding quarter last year. This entails a growth rate of 5.7%, which is among the lowest since the Modi government came to power in 2014. By comparison, the GDP growth rate in Q4 2016-17 (the previous quarter) was 6.1%.
However, the government, as well as credit ratings agencies such as Moody's, have recently been talking down the significance of GDP as a practical measure, in light of demonetisation, GST and farm-loan waivers, and instead been talking up GVA (Gross Value Added). On this front too, however, growth has only been 5.6%, with GVA rising from Rs. 27.5 lakh crore (~$429 billion) in Q1 2016-17 to Rs. 29.04 lakh crore (~$459 billion) this year.
The CSO also provided an industry-wise break-up that revealed that while Agriculture and Mining and quarrying were relatively static in terms of GVA growth quarter-on-quarter, Manufacturing GVA dropped from 10.7% in Q1 2016-17 to a measly 1.2% in the most recent quarter. IIP (the Index of Industrial Production) similarly tanked to 1.8% from 6.7% in the year-ago period.
Somewhat surprisingly, the construction industry, which was thought to be highly cash dependent, did not seem to exhibit too many adverse effects of demonetisation, as GVA stood at 2% versus 3.1% in the corresponding quarter last year.
The only sector that showed increased growth was Public administration, defence and other services, which rose by 9.5% in Q1 2017-18 versus 8.6% last year.